tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3101162324715983722.post2337790075890819984..comments2024-03-16T11:28:41.525-04:00Comments on Diving for Pearls: Scotch Market in Flux, Part 1: 2015 and Misplaced OptimismMichaelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02288790197865570681noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3101162324715983722.post-84557676949783368242017-03-14T11:28:17.879-04:002017-03-14T11:28:17.879-04:00@Florin - Yeah, I think the ultra-luxury whisky ma...@Florin - Yeah, I think the ultra-luxury whisky market will continue for a while. Whisky Advocate is banking on it!<br /><br />You're probably correct about "the point where raising prices leads to reductions in consumption". Highland Park did a very good job with that with their 18yo, as much as I may personally bitch about it. This is an approach that Suntory did not utilize with their Japanese single malts until it was much too late. But now that the Scotch industry has met that breaking point, it will be interesting to see how each distillery/brand responds.Diving for Pearlshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02373371259792882112noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3101162324715983722.post-78835035778886245282017-03-14T11:22:47.453-04:002017-03-14T11:22:47.453-04:00But the pretty bottle!But the pretty bottle!Diving for Pearlshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02373371259792882112noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3101162324715983722.post-79973814965290934102017-03-14T11:22:11.907-04:002017-03-14T11:22:11.907-04:00Agreed. I'm curious to see how this consolidat...Agreed. I'm curious to see how this consolidation plays out: When will they cut production quantities? Are they currently banking on a future boom in the next decade? Do they still see China as the cure to all the sales ills? How many distilleries will they close once Death Stars (like Roseisle) result in redundancies?Diving for Pearlshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02373371259792882112noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3101162324715983722.post-75597166412916825862017-03-14T11:16:46.838-04:002017-03-14T11:16:46.838-04:00I think they'll only recognize it if or when i...I think they'll only recognize it if or when it makes financial sense to them.<br /><br />While I understand a corporation desire to expand a brand, many of the NASes make no sense to me. I don't mind two types of NAS bottlings: 1.) a starter whisky priced lower than the youngest age stated whisky in the portfolio; 2.) cask strength batches, as long as they're not priced as high as an 18yo malt. NASes that seem to work fine are things like Bowmore Legend (RIP) and Aberlour A'bunadh (or Dronach and Goyne's CSes). But then again, Benromach 5yo works even better. Honesty and all that.Diving for Pearlshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02373371259792882112noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3101162324715983722.post-86278525321237355232017-03-14T08:49:46.035-04:002017-03-14T08:49:46.035-04:00"This is why I've kept track of who was c..."This is why I've kept track of who was clearly out to hoover money out of the fools and who wanted to play the long game by maintaining established customers."<br />And how are they doing in the "whisky loch" picture?Old Bridgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01395633985468201191noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3101162324715983722.post-58390920595024742922017-03-13T20:19:30.737-04:002017-03-13T20:19:30.737-04:00I knew the jig was up when it became relatively no...I knew the jig was up when it became relatively normal for entry-level single malts to be priced at $60 (*cough*Tamdhu*cough*).Jordanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06448702693643593156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3101162324715983722.post-28276406837534236672017-03-13T20:15:55.427-04:002017-03-13T20:15:55.427-04:00This is why I've kept track of who was clearly...This is why I've kept track of who was clearly out to hoover money out of the fools and who wanted to play the long game by maintaining established customers. With that said, it's been very difficult for a lot of producers to sit by while the secondary market pulled in piles that should by all rights have been going to the distillers, but it's tricky to do that without alienating the less fervid customers.Jordanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06448702693643593156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3101162324715983722.post-20955364464057101042017-03-13T16:22:29.872-04:002017-03-13T16:22:29.872-04:00As Florin said, the takeaway for me is that Scotti...As Florin said, the takeaway for me is that Scottish distillers, through insane amounts of price increases, forced consumers towards alternative products; bourbon, rye, Irish being alternative whiskeys with *much* better value propositions. <br /><br />It'll be interesting to see if a correction of prices can save them, or if they've lost all those scotch drinkers for good. The fact of the matter is that whisky is a consumable, *not* a durable good. This isn't iPhones they're selling, and you can't turn an entire product segment of consumables into luxury goods, especially when other, similar, and high quality items exist in the "disposable goods" price bracket. <br /><br />Can't say I feel sad for Scottish producers-- they simply fucked themselves with their own greed. Looking forward to the returns that patience sows. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05330871431175538549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3101162324715983722.post-36946331876153145462017-03-13T12:25:32.945-04:002017-03-13T12:25:32.945-04:00I interpret the data in the 1st part as a result o...I interpret the data in the 1st part as a result of the interplay between demand and prices. It looks like the industry has found the top of the market, the point where raising prices leads to reductions in consumption. They'll now try their best to keep the current level as the new normal, but expect to see more and more price reductions, sales, the sort of thing we were used to pre-2011. (Except maybe in the super-old whiskies, 25yo+, where the racket will keep going for a few more years.)Florinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14445344658258056628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3101162324715983722.post-81071702549190272852017-03-13T11:58:34.083-04:002017-03-13T11:58:34.083-04:00One of the most interesting things about now compa...One of the most interesting things about now compared to the previous boom and bust is that the industry is far more consolidated now. The first whisky loch was more understandable because there was far more fragmentation, which prevented coordinated action from restraining production until the bottom really fell out. Now Diageo and Pernod Ricard should have had far better data and been able to act accordingly, but it seems that they were still unable to correctly predict the market.Jordanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06448702693643593156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3101162324715983722.post-24547638225764842992017-03-13T09:42:55.690-04:002017-03-13T09:42:55.690-04:00I understand nothing but thank you!I understand nothing but thank you!My Annoying Opinionshttp://www.myannoyingopinions.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3101162324715983722.post-77430505000571640642017-03-13T09:35:48.825-04:002017-03-13T09:35:48.825-04:00All in all, I consider this as good news.
Maybe ...All in all, I consider this as good news. <br /><br />Maybe the major producers start realizing at some point that we want awesome quality hooch instead of 'yet another vague release that doesn't add anything to the portfolio'.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com